Presentation #145.04 in the session “Gamma Ray Bursts”.
If GW170817 is representative of short GRBs from neutron star mergers, what is the probability that a given neutron star merger found by LIGO/Virgo will have a detectable afterglow? To answer this question, we first model the afterglow observations of GW170817, including VLBA position measurements, using the energy distribution from a simulated short GRB (Lazzati et al. 2017a). This gives us best-fit parameters for the electron index (p), electron energy fraction (εe), magnetic field energy fraction (εB), ISM density (nISM), and observing angle (θ). We then use these parameters to determine the X-ray, optical, and radio brightness of the afterglow as a function of observer angle and distance, to determine how likely it is that an afterglow identical to that of GW170817 would be detectable.