Direct imaging and spectroscopic characterization of atmospheres of Earth-like exoplanets require starlight suppression to detect a faint planetary signal at small angular separations. Future space telescopes will require segmentation to survey a statistically significant population of nearby stars systems by increasing aperture size beyond the limits set by traditional monolithic apertures; however, segmentation also represents an additional challenge due to the introduction of temporal pupil discontinuities in terms of both phase and amplitude. For this study, a baseline Lyot coronagraph is used with the Large UV / Optical /Infrared (LUVOIR) mission’s 15-m on-axis, segmented optical telescope assembly (OTA). We present a high-fidelity, end-to-end modeling approach developed as part of the Segmented Coronagraph Design and Analysis (SCDA) group that includes diffractive optical propagations at the 1e-10 contrast level across the entire optical train including the OTA and intermediate re-imaging optics inside the coronagraph instrument. We perform a tolerancing analysis to assess the contrast sensitivity to wavefront perturbations for a set of key telescope terms including segment-level low-order and mid-spatial frequency aberrations. As an input to the end-to-end telescope model, we use two industry-provided segment-level wavefront aberration datasets pertaining: (1) thermal gradients and accelerations (courtesy of Ball-Aerospace and L3-Harris), and (2) telescope dynamics including line-of-sight and segment jitter (courtesy of Lockheed-Martin). Contrast performance outputs of the coronagraph are fed into a mission design reference simulator to assess the scientific yield sensitivity. End-to-end modeling will incorporate performance improvements due to active wavefront sensing and control and/or segment-level metrology to improve system performance.