Presentation #108.44 in the session “Missions and Instruments (Poster)”.
This poster introduces an analytic method for the calculating the uncertainty in the time to complete a complex manufacturing process. The problem of quantifying schedule uncertainty is one of growing importance as future major projects both ground and space based require the production of large quantities of highly precise components. Earlier work done for the Lynx mission study has laid the ground work for this current report by deriving expressions for the expected (mean) value of the total production time. This work extends the previous work to estimate the uncertainty in the time to complete a complex manufacturing process and formulates the results as an error budget. This general work is applied to the specific test case of the silicon meta-shell optics being studied for Lynx as an example of the application of the theory.