OBSCURE: Determining the Likelihood of Exoplanetary System Configurations from Observational Catalogs

Over the past few decades, exoplanetary detections have grown substantially. While these observations provide some glimpses into the environment of the exoplanetary system, some aspects of the system’s characterization are left unexplored due to the limitations of detection techniques (such as the true mass and inclination w.r.t the observer). These gaps in our knowledge can be partially filled when we utilize our understanding of planetary orbits. For example, Petit et al and others have explored an analytical approach to limiting exoplanetary configurations via the use of a system’s Angular Momentum Deficit (AMD). Within the AMD framework, one can include certain stability requirements which result in accurately determining the long-term stability of a system without the need for costly simulations. However, analytical approaches cannot fully encompass regions where other factors cause a theoretically unstable system to become stable. In these regions, full numerical simulations are the only correct way forward. In order to be time efficient, secular approaches are the most efficient and accurate in systems of quasi-stability.

The developed OrBital Stability ConfigURation of Exoplanetary Systems (OBSCURE) tool focuses on combining the analytic stability arguments (EX: AMD) of a system with two or more massive bodies with secular integration of the long-term evolution of their averaged orbits. The goal is to ingest observed quantities from exoplanet surveys and provide limits to derived physical attributes of a system which cannot be directly observed.