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Strategic Intelligence and Solar Cycle Predictions

Presentation #110.01 in the session General Topics II — Solar.

Published onOct 20, 2022
Strategic Intelligence and Solar Cycle Predictions

Solar Cycle 25 continues its rapid rise to solar maximum. An updated prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 using the SODA polar field precursor method will be presented. This precursor has accurately predicted the last three cycles and seems to be doing well for the current cycle. An ensemble of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 will be described. While waiting for maximum we can assess our long-term solar cycle prediction algorithms. Strategic Intelligence (SI) is another area where predictions of complicated systems are required. Of course, SI tries to anticipate how humans will behave rather than a magnetic field. But the two are similar in that predictions over multiple timescales are needed, seconds to decades for the Sun and days to years for SI. There is good agreement between the SI production cycle and the scientific method. But at least one author strongly recommends one additional step: well-written reports. He stresses usability and readability of the research results. He contrasted British and American intelligence reports in WW II, where the British wrote easily digested reports, while the Americans wrote dense reports full of information. People preferred the British version. He also introduced lifetimes for collected information that might guide building solar data archives. What lessons from the world of SI can be applied to predictions of solar activity and the amplitude Solar Cycle 26?

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