Presentation #117.02 in the session Solar Flare Prediction — Poster Session.
We examine the cradle-to-grave magnetic evolution of 10 bipolar ephemeral active regions (BEARs) in solar coronal holes, especially aspects of the magnetic evolution leading to each of 43 obvious microflare events. The data are from Solar Dynamics Observatory: 211 Å coronal EUV images and line-of-sight photospheric magnetograms. We find evidence that (1) each microflare event is a magnetic explosion that results in a miniature flare arcade astride the polarity inversion line (PIL) of the explosive lobe of the BEAR’s anemone magnetic field; (2) relative to the BEAR’s emerged flux-rope Ω loop, the anemone’s explosive lobe can be an inside lobe, an outside lobe, or an inside & outside lobe; (3) 5 events are confined explosions, 20 events are mostly-confined explosions, and 18 events are blowout explosions, which are miniatures of the magnetic explosions that make coronal mass ejections (CMEs); (4) contrary to the expectation of Moore et al (2010), none of the 18 blowout events explode from inside the BEAR’s Ω loop during the Ω loop’s emergence; (5) before and during each of the 43 microflare events there is magnetic flux cancellation at the PIL of the anemone’s explosive lobe. From finding evident flux cancellation at the underlying PIL before and during all 43 microflare events — together with BEARs evidently being miniatures of all larger solar bipolar active regions — we expect that in essentially the same way, flux cancellation in sunspot active regions prepares and triggers the magnetic explosions for many major flares and CMEs.