Presentation #405.02 in the session Drivers and Dynamics of the Coupled Ionosphere-thermosphere-mesosphere-atmosphere System II.
The ionosphere is a complicated layer-cake of differing chemical composition, densities, and temperatures that reacts to incoming solar radiation in different ways. Historically, solar flare forecasting has focused on determining the probability that the peak Soft X-Ray emission from a flare exceeds a given threshold. However, only limited parts of the ionosphere react to SXR radiation; the more impactful wavelengths are EUV, and the spectral and time dependence of the radiation, not just its peak, are important in determining the ionosphere’s response. We present here a new approach to forecasting EUV flares, employing the NWRA Classification Infrastructure to specifically predict the probability of a solar flare with a representative spectral behavior occurring within a specified time interval. Demonstrated skill is positive for a multi-population forecast. With this approach, not just the probability of a flare is provided, but an ionospheric-specific prediction of incoming EUV spectral enhancement and its temporal behavior is provided. This work was funded by DARPA-SEE under contract DOI 140D6319C0032.