Presentation #410.02 in the session Understanding Solar Eruptions Using Data-driven Models and Multi-height Observations of the Solar Atmosphere II.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are major drivers of extreme space weather conditions, hence a matter of serious concern for our modern, technologically dependent society. The development of models that simulate CME generation and propagation through the interplanetary space is an important step toward our capability to predict CME arrival times at Earth and their geo-effectiveness.
CME generation models of varying complexity and accuracy have been developed for decades from over-pressured plasmoid models to flux rope-based models with or without the necessity of energy build-up before eruption. In almost all cases, they have model parameters that need adjustment from one event to another.
In this work, we present an overview of a data-driven MHD simulation model for CME generation and propagation extending from lower chromosphere to 1 AU which is currently developed within the MS-FLUKSS code. It is entirely based on first principles with minimum setup effort and free model parameters. It consists of local chromosphere/corona and global corona simulation models that are coupled. Our local model driven by vector magnetograms on the photosphere tracks the evolution of active regions to obtain formation of flux ropes near polarity inversion lines and eventually their eruptions resulting from ideal and non-ideal instabilities. The propagation of the erupted CME is then followed up to 1 AU through the global corona and inner heliosphere where the results are validated with near-Earth spacecraft data.
We consider simulating the CME eruption that occurred together with the M6.9 flare on 12/18/2014 from active region NOAA 12241. The local CME generation simulation will be performed by both the abovementioned local chromosphere/corona model and the EULAG-MHD model. The erupted CME will propagate into the corona by coupling these two models with the abovementioned global corona model separately. Then, the resulting CME will be further propagated into the inner heliosphere up to 1 AU. The resulting CME eruption and propagation simulation results will be compared with each other and validated against the near-Earth spacecraft data.